It’s the most effective weekend of the season.
There’s nothing fairly like a set of preliminary finals – hearts can be damaged, pulses will quicken, and when the mud settles, we could have our two prize fighters for season 2024.
And it’s solely becoming, after a fairly frankly bonkers season, that our 4 skilled tippers have give you three distinct grand last pairings of the 4 doable outcomes.
One in all us has even backed Port Adelaide to take down Sydney!
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Tim Miller
Port Adelaide, Geelong
Okay, let’s handle the elephant within the room right here: sure, I’m tipping Geelong to beat Brisbane.
Simply kidding – effectively, not about that, however honest to say that’s not the extra surprising out of my two requires this weekend.
Why do I believe Port will greatest the Swans and e-book their first grand last berth in 17 years? To be sincere, I’m not solely certain myself.
Perhaps it’s my deep-seated feeling that no crew is sweet sufficient to get by means of this finals collection with out at the least one shocker. Meaning, by default for the time being, the Energy, having been embarrassed by Geelong within the qualifying last, are the one ones to have gotten the stinker out of their system.
Perhaps it’s Port’s unbelievable current file over Sydney, successful eight video games in a row throughout an eight-year stretch towards the Bloods that features – and the way might anybody neglect this – a 112-point bloodbath simply two months in the past, probably the most surprising end in a season filled with them.
Perhaps it’s my robust perception that the Swans, regardless of being minor premiers and residential preliminary finalists, are nonetheless effectively off their greatest – one good final quarter received them out of jail towards GWS regardless of trailing just about all day, whereas an identical escape towards Collingwood and affordable if not completely convincing wins over non-finalists Essendon and Adelaide aren’t precisely outcomes that encourage confidence since Port blew them to smithereens.
Perhaps it’s a mixture of all three, plus the logic that, in a season which has thrown up random outcomes from begin to end, preliminary last weekend is unlikely to go in keeping with script. And I simply reckon if both underdog goes to spring an upset, it’s the Energy.
As for the opposite match, I’ve received one other controversial opinion – I believe Brisbane are far too quick with the bookies.
Are they a puncher’s probability? Completely – any crew that may overturn a 44-point deficit in a semi last on enemy territory is able to something, and the Lions’ greatest this season has been spectacular.
However you realize what’s a greater win than one coming from seven targets down? One the place you didn’t have to come back from seven targets down. And very similar to the Swans, I’m not satisfied a September jailbreak is kind of the signal of energy it appears.
The Cats have owned the Lions of their final two finals encounters, together with a 71-point bloodbath within the 2022 prelim. For the reason that ‘Miracle on Grass’, Brisbane have simply three wins over Geelong, all on the Gabba.
Think about that they’ve two wins within the final decade on the MCG – albeit one this 12 months and the opposite in a last, 2022’s semi towards Melbourne – and should you put any inventory into match-ups, then all of the playing cards listed here are firmly pointing the Cats’ method.
Chad Warner. (Photograph by Sarah Reed/AFL Pictures by way of Getty Photographs)
Dem Panopoulos
Sydney, Geelong
Preliminary last weekend has loads to dwell as much as after how effectively the semi-finals handled us.
Perhaps it’s simply me: I’m a sucker for some color to brighten up the optics of that last day in September, however we’re anticipating the purple and white of the Swans to achieve the Grand Closing, proper?
They’ve misplaced eight in a row to Port and misplaced in a reasonably related method each time – the Energy dominates the contested ball and tackling, in addition to the aerial contests, dragging down loads of contested marks and grabs inside 50.
Port’s win over the Hawks within the sem type of felt like their very own grand last. They need to have received by extra, however they practically misplaced anyway.
Their midfield has carried out all of the work for them this 12 months, to guard the offence and defence – you received’t see higher tackling numbers from a centre group in good situations for years.
To beat Sydney, they should elevate that to a different stage, which is method an excessive amount of to ask. They don’t have the aerial dominance they’ve all the time tended to have, which has been their key to beating the Swans.
Plus, Chris Scott made a reasonably easy declare earlier than the qualifying last – simply get the ball ahead, inside 50, and you may rating towards Port. To me, it’s so simple as that. No Callum Mills hurts Sydney’s defensive construction, however they’ll be too highly effective offensively.
On the flipside, certain, I’d say Brisbane has a greater probability of beating Geelong than maybe the Energy does.
I believe we hold underrating the Cats. It’s both as a result of we don’t need them to maintain being good, or we’ve developed this perception that they play boring footy, which they don’t.
Chris Scott has had loads of playing cards up his sleeve all season lengthy and he’s beginning to use them proper now, when it counts. Chris Fagan did some good issues within the second half towards GWS, however the Cats aren’t going to roll over just like the Giants did.
Defensively, Brisbane have been dangerous all 12 months, they usually had been horrible within the semi-final regardless of successful. You’ll be able to’t concede a rating practically 60 per cent of the time your defensive 50 is breached and anticipate sustainability.
They’ll must put an enormous rating on the board to win this prelim. Right here’s a reality – within the final decade, 16 occasions Brisbane have performed Geelong, they usually’ve scored greater than 80 simply twice. Bewildering, given the efficiency of this crew.
It’ll relaxation on huge Joe Daniher once more. I’ve lengthy had him within the prime three key forwards within the league and he proved his price on Saturday night time. Can he again it up? He’s Brisbane’s solely probability.
A 2022 grand last rematch looms, however one factor’s for certain – September footy is alive and effectively.
Cameron Rose
Sydney, Brisbane
Port have solely received one quarter of soccer in September to date. It’s inconceivable they might make it to a grand last off the again of such an underwhelming finals collection.
However then once more, it was solely final month once they beat Sydney by virtually 20 targets, a crew they haven’t misplaced to since 2016.
If Port can convey the identical stage of strain they did towards Hawthorn, then they are often aggressive with anybody – however consistency is often laborious to come back by for Ken Hinkley’s groups. I’m backing the Swans to get the job carried out and trusting they’ve discovered their mojo.
On paper, Geelong are a shadow of the good September groups they’ve produced over the past 20 years, but right here they’re in one other preliminary last.
What a testomony to their soccer operations and Chris Scott as a coach, capitalising to most impact the distinctive benefits they take pleasure in.
That mentioned, Brisbane are a greater soccer aspect, and may discover themselves in a grand last regardless of the actual fact they need to have been eradicated by GWS final weekend.
They’ll create loads of possibilities, and simply have to make sure they don’t kick themselves out of it.
Liam Salter
Sydney, Geelong
Let’s reduce to the chase.
After an enthralling residence and away season, a sensationally enjoyable finals collection to date and with 4 (largely) wonderful groups nonetheless alive, it’s inevitably going to be those we all the time anticipated: the Swans and the Cats, similar to two years in the past.
Don’t misconstrue me – neither are overwhelming favourites, however they’re reliable. It’s truthfully that easy.
The Energy – so dangerous a fortnight in the past, so robust final week – could have taken the torturously lengthy path to Friday night time’s sport, however they know their opponents very effectively. Everybody remembers Spherical 21’s mauling of the Swans, however Ken Hinkley’s aspect haven’t misplaced to the minor premiers since 2017 – they usually haven’t misplaced on the SCG since a 12 months sooner than that, too.
There are positives for the guests, to make sure: beating an in-form Hawthorn outfit was a genuinely spectacular achievement, they usually’ll seemingly head into the prelim a stronger outfit, particularly in the event that they regain backline lieutenants Ryan Burton and Kane Farrell.
It’s inconceivable to shake the sense of deja vu for the Energy, although – they’ve by no means fairly mastered prelims, even for a crew as clearly proficient and infrequently very entertaining as they’re. They’ve averted straight units, however received’t be capable of keep away from a crueller torture: a preliminary last loss.
If the Swans are my favourites on kind, the Cats are my tip as a result of… in fact they bloody are, it’s Geelong!
Don’t get me unsuitable: I like the Lions’ odds right here, and am eternally partial to groups from exterior the highest 4 making grand finals (positively for Brisbane, the final two groups to take action received preliminary finals exterior their residence state – simply don’t ask them about their outcomes the next week).
However in an age of dependability, the Lions rating low on that rely. I simply can’t belief them, their goalkicking or which persona we’ll get every sport (or quarter). Their greatest is elegant, however towards an opponent such because the Cats, you’d wish to be excellent, fairly often.
In the end, predictability triumphs: the Swans have been the 12 months’s greatest membership, the Cats the outdated trusting hand. Their opponents could also be flashier, extra compelling, and considerably extra seductive underdogs, however they’re not substantive – or dependable – sufficient.
It received’t be huge, daring, horny or new – however we’ll get a hell of a grand last anyway.
(Photograph by Michael Dodge/Getty Photographs)
| Preliminary Finals | Tim | Dem | Cam | Liam | Crowd |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SYD vs PA | PA | SYD | SYD | SYD | ? |
| GEE vs BL | GEE | GEE | BL | GEE | ? |
| LAST WEEK | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| ROLLING TOTAL | 125 | 134 | 130 | 124 | 131 |
