After which there have been 4.
With the conclusion of the divisional spherical, we’re simply two video games away from discovering out who will play in Tremendous Bowl LIX.
Probably the most notable win from the divisional spherical was the No. 6 Washington Commanders’ upset of the No. 1 staff within the NFC, the Detroit Lions.
The Commanders will play their NFC East rival, the Philadelphia Eagles, within the NFC championship recreation.
Within the AFC, the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs host the Buffalo Payments.
Beneath, you’ll discover my picks towards the unfold and for the over/beneath utilizing soccer odds from the BetMGM sportsbook.
Buffalo Payments @ Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
Whereas the Chiefs have many benefits on paper, particularly within the trenches, I’m siding with Buffalo at +2.
The Payments led the NFL in turnover differential at plus-24 through the common season and are already plus-3 within the post-season.
Within the first recreation towards the Chiefs, Buffalo intercepted and sacked Mahomes twice.
This defence enhances the Payments offence extraordinarily nicely, as they get in good discipline place.
Buffalo desires to run the ball, be it with quarterback Josh Allen or working backs James Cook dinner and Ray Davis.
Within the first recreation, the Chiefs allowed 104 dashing yards to the Payments. Allen had over 260 passing yards and a dashing landing.
Simply final week, the Chiefs surrendered 149 dashing yards and a dashing TD to the Houston Texans.
This recreation isn’t in Buffalo like Week 11, however I belief this dashing assault to maintain the Chiefs and Mahomes off the sphere and steal this one on the street.
SPREAD PICK: Payments +2 (-115)
The Payments are an intriguing staff.
They’re a borderline top-10 passing and dashing assault however averaged the second-most factors per recreation within the common season at 30.9. By two post-season video games, they’re averaging 29 factors.
An enormous half is their potential to generate turnovers, put themselves in brief however beneficial discipline positions, and capitalize. They’re second in purple zone landing share at 68.42 per cent.
Nevertheless, as we noticed in Week 11, each groups are greater than able to scoring 20-plus factors. It helps to have two of the most effective QBs within the league.
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since his outing towards the Payments, however he’s had 9 turnover-worthy performs since.
As for selecting the over, I see a number of avenues.
First, it’s a shootout between elite QBs.
Alternatively, the Payments can flip these turnover-worthy performs from Mahomes into turnovers. With these turnovers, Mahomes might want to rating to maintain tempo.
OVER/UNDER PICK: Over 47.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
It might appear ludicrous after the Commanders downed the Lions, however I’m taking the Eagles -6.
Sure, the Commanders exploded within the divisional spherical. Heck, they even put up 36 on the Eagles in Week 16. Nevertheless, it’s vital to recollect the context surrounding the latter.
The Eagles held a 21-7 lead after the primary quarter, however Eagles QB Jalen Hurts left early with a concussion.
Backup Kenny Pickett got here in, had an interception, misplaced a fumble, and averaged simply 6 yards per try.
Do not forget, Eagles WR DeVonta Smith dropped a third-down go late within the recreation, which might’ve allowed the Eagles to expire the clock and win. As an alternative, they kicked a discipline aim, went up 5, and misplaced.
I anticipate this to be nearer to the Week 11 matchup, when the Eagles received 26-18.
SPREAD PICK: Eagles -6 (-115)
Whereas I’m not predicting a rating of 26-18 once more this time, I believe we see a a lot lower-scoring affair than Week 16’s 69 factors.
Let’s not neglect that these are two robust go defences. The Eagles allowed simply 174.2 passing yards (first), whereas the Commanders surrendered a mere 189.5 passing yards (third) per recreation.
Within the common season, the Eagles had the most effective defence general relating to yards allowed at 278.4.
As for the Commanders, their run defence has been weak. They allowed 137.5 dashing yards per recreation (thirtieth) through the common season, and that has since gone as much as 151 per recreation through the post-season.
These two groups need to run the ball: The Eagles with Hurts and Barkley, and the Commanders with a mix of QB Jayden Daniels’ zone reads and RBs Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler.
I’ll take the Eagles 27-20.
OVER/UNDER PICK: UNDER 47.5 (-110)
