SCOTT DETROW, HOST:
It has been a dramatic week in Syria because the nation’s long-stagnant civil warfare, which started within the early 2010s, has reignited. Rebel teams have taken over large cities lengthy managed by Syrian President Bashar Assad’s authoritarian authorities. And at this time, they reached the suburbs of the capital metropolis, Damascus, based on the Related Press.
As we monitor this fast-changing story, we’ll focus in on one facet of it, the function that Russia has performed in conserving Assad’s authorities in energy and the way that has modified on this newest part. Russian President Vladimir Putin has, for years, supplied crucial navy assist that propped up the Assad regime, however with a warfare dragging on Ukraine and a struggling economic system at residence in Russia, the pondering appears to be totally different. Right here to speak extra about that is Mark Katz, a professor emeritus at George Mason College who makes a speciality of Russian coverage towards the Center East. Welcome.
MARK KATZ: Nice to be right here.
DETROW: As I simply laid out, it has been such a stunning previous few days within the Syrian civil warfare. It has been occurring for greater than a decade. Let’s look backward, particularly to these early years of the warfare. How crucial was Putin’s assist for Assad and Russia’s assist for the Syrian authorities in these early years of this warfare and since?
KATZ: It was actually essential. I imply, definitely from the outbreak of the Arab Spring in 2011 up till mid-2015, Putin was sending arms, nevertheless it was Iranians and Hezbollah who had been combating on the bottom to defend Assad. However then 2015, Assad appeared to be on the ropes. However Putin’s intervention in September of that yr actually turned issues round, saved Assad, helped him achieve again territory and did not take all that many males, and – partly as a result of, you recognize, the Iranians and Hezbollah had lots of people there already. However Putin’s small intervention was profitable in comparison with the big American interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq that weren’t. So it was very dramatic.
DETROW: What’s one of the simplest ways to border the present Russian curiosity in Syria proper now, whether or not that is the main focus of the Russian authorities or whether or not that is Russian manpower in Syria or not in Syria?
KATZ: I believe the connection with Syria is essential as a result of, you recognize, on the time of the Arab Spring, Assad was his final Arab ally, and if he had fallen, there would not have been a lot room for Russian affect within the Center East. However the truth that not solely did Putin save Assad, however oddly sufficient, even Arab governments who did not like Assad had been impressed by Putin having supported him so strongly in comparison with what they claimed was an absence of American assist for its allies.
And so I believe that, you recognize, Putin’s place in Syria has helped him, you recognize, construct relations with loads of international locations – Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates particularly – and so they have, you recognize, essential relations with these. However now if Assad goes to fall, then the query arises is, properly, simply how helpful an ally is Putin in any case?
DETROW: Proper. And has there been any Russian assist on this specific dire second for the Assad authorities? Or is it honest to say that Russia is concentrated on Ukraine and simply is just not capable of contribute in the identical method?
KATZ: Russia’s primarily targeted on Ukraine, and definitely the photographs and the reporting appears to be that the Russians are shifting out. They’ve moved their naval vessels out of the port, Tartus (ph). They appear to be pulling again their belongings to the – you recognize, each the air base and the naval base. They are not shifting individuals in. They appear to be shifting individuals away from the battle.
DETROW: So what does that imply for the Assad authorities, initially? Do you suppose that, if the assist’s simply not there, do you suppose that makes the approaching weeks that rather more precarious?
KATZ: It makes the approaching days that rather more precarious, possibly the approaching hours. Yeah, I believe that definitely there have been, you recognize, some complaints by Russians that Assad has not been keen to battle, that al-Assad’s troops haven’t been keen to battle. So the implication is, how can Russia defend individuals who aren’t keen to defend themselves? It simply appears that the Russians appear to grasp that the state of affairs is fairly dire. They usually’re simply not ready to assist. As we have additionally seen, the Iranians appear to be shifting out as properly, which I believe is de facto stunning as a result of, if something, the connection with Syria is much more vital to them than to Russia, though it is clearly debatable.
DETROW: If the Assad authorities falls, how a lot does that weaken Russia within the Center East?
KATZ: Properly, it is definitely – it’ll harm Russia. Now, in fact, I imply, they’ve relations with locations that do vital issues to them. There’s cooperation with the Saudis on oil, numerous financial cooperation with the UAE. Actually, the Egyptians will in all probability nonetheless work with them. Nevertheless it implies that Putin is just not as highly effective. And I believe that for lots of nations who actually accepted the narrative that the Individuals aren’t dependable however Putin is, that this has now been – going to be undermined tremendously.
DETROW: I need to ask about one different issue right here, and such as you stated, this could be a matter of days by way of the quick change in fortunes in Syria. However trying ahead, you will have Donald Trump coming again into workplace in america when he was president. Trump made it very clear that he was extremely skeptical of American intervention in Syria. What do you see – how do you see a second Trump administration altering the dynamics in Syria?
KATZ: If Assad falls earlier than Trump involves energy, I believe that Trump, when he is available in, can be very prone to pull the remaining 900-odd U.S. troopers out of Syria. That – go away Syria to the Syrians. In different phrases, if it is not going to be beneath the management of an exterior nice energy, then that is type of what America was attempting to forestall, though we had been there to battle ISIS. However I believe will probably be very exhausting for the U.S., irrespective of who’s president, to keep up its presence, and I would not be shocked if Trump particularly withdraws it.
DETROW: That’s Mark Katz, professor emeritus at George Mason College. Thanks a lot for taking the time to speak us via all of this.
KATZ: Thanks.
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