NPR’s David Folkenflik speaks to strategic research professor Phillips O’Brien of the College of St. Andrews in Scotland concerning the significance of Ukraine’s army incursion into Russia.
DAVID FOLKENFLIK, HOST:
It is the most important invasion of Russia because the finish of World Warfare II – Ukraine’s shock incursion into the Kursk area. It surprised Moscow. The combating has continued for 2 weeks now, and Russia’s vowed to retaliate with, quote, “a worthy response.” However might this operation change the very course of the battle? Becoming a member of us now could be Phillips O’Brien. He is a professor of strategic research at St. Andrews College in Scotland. Welcome to this system.
PHILLIPS O’BRIEN: Glad to be right here.
FOLKENFLIK: Professor O’Brien, simply what has Ukraine achieved, and the way vital is it?
O’BRIEN: Properly, they’ve modified quite a lot of issues. I imply, they have been by no means going to invade Russia and take Moscow. That was by no means, say, the aim of this operation. The offensive has quite a lot of causes. One, I believe, is to vary the – one of many dynamics of the struggle, which was that, in a way, Russia was by no means to be attacked straight over its border, that america and fears of escalation and different of Ukraine’s companions haven’t needed Ukraine to assault Russia straight. And the Ukrainians stated sufficient of this. Russia has had an enormous benefit by not having to defend their border. We’re going to make them must defend their border.
The second is, they realized the Russians have only a few reserves. The Russians have been placing the whole lot into the Donbas. And so what the Ukrainians are saying – you haven’t any reserves. We will now make you attempt to transfer your troops round and defend yourselves since you’re weak in that sense.
One other factor is to point out the Russian army is simply not this nice highly effective pressure that generally the Western press makes it out to be. The Russian army is known as a ponderous group with some main weaknesses. And in doing this operation, the Ukrainians have proven us what these are.
FOLKENFLIK: Is there some hazard of overreach right here for the Ukrainians?
O’BRIEN: Properly, the hazard that some individuals are saying is it means the Ukrainians have used these forces right here as an alternative of throwing them into the Donbas. The Ukrainians I converse to suppose this can be a nonsense argument. The Donbas is the place the Russians have nearly the whole lot, and so they’re advancing very slowly by simply blowing issues up of their wake. So by simply throwing extra forces within the Donbas, the Ukrainians thought, it is simply placing your head right into a – to a meat grinder, that this was, in actual fact, a greater strategy to do it as a result of it performs on Russian weaknesses and takes the initiative away from Russia. So there are some Western analysts who say this can be a danger. The Ukrainians I converse to do not settle for the danger that they’re being instructed they’re working.
FOLKENFLIK: How huge a setback is that this for Russia and for President Vladimir Putin?
O’BRIEN: Properly, I imply, if Ukraine can take a piece of Russia and fortify it and maintain it, this can be a huge downside for Putin. Putin is a dictator. Dictators thrive on visions of power, that they management their nation. They supply safety. If the Ukrainians can present that Putin cannot defend the border of Russia and, furthermore, cannot drive the Ukrainians again, that may be a huge downside for Putin’s picture.
Additionally there are specific political issues we’ve to look at. The Ukrainians have already captured a whole lot of conscripts. And conscripts are the draftees who Putin has stated won’t ever go combat in Ukraine. However really, the Russians, trigger they do not have a whole lot of reserves, have needed to ship conscripts to attempt to combat the Ukrainians, and so they’re dropping them. So there are a whole lot of, we would say, potential political pitfalls for Putin on this.
FOLKENFLIK: And lastly, what’s your sense of how this may play out within the coming weeks?
O’BRIEN: Properly, I believe the Ukrainians are going to remain there and pressure the Russians to attempt to deploy a big military to drive them again. The Ukrainians do not feel any need to go away proper now. This is not a raid the place they will run in and run out in just a few days, which some folks thought to start with. They do not plan to occupy Russia perpetually, however they are not going to go away except the Russians deploy huge pressure and attempt to drive them out. So I believe what we’ll do is see extra of the identical till the Russians, you may say, get severe and notice they will want a really massive pressure to attempt to push the Ukrainians again.
FOLKENFLIK: We have been talking with Phillips O’Brien of St Andrews College and creator of the forthcoming e-book “The Strategists.” Professor O’Brien, thanks a lot for becoming a member of us.
O’BRIEN: Thanks.
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